Truman Doctrine Redux
and the New Energy Paradigm
In the decade leading up to World War II, the Third Reich increasingly became a threat to the remainder of Europe, as Germany ignored the terms of the Treaty of Versailles and began to re-militarize itself. Europe looked on with concern, yet deliberately chose not to intervene when Germany invaded the Rhineland and Czechoslovakia. Such policies of appeasement emboldened Hitler and contributed to his own sense of invincibility. We now recognize that had the world stepped up against Germany before they had re-armed, the utter carnage of WWII may have been averted. In hindsight, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain is now widely discredited for his weak policies towards an aggressive Germany and the world has lamented the high price that was paid for Europe’s collective lack of political will and appeasement in advance of WWII.
The current situation in Europe has certain similarities to the lead-up to WWII. Increasing Russian aggression has emerged over the past decade (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea). However, prior to recent weeks, the West’s response to Russia’s recent aggression has been tepid at best. Instead of standing up to Russia in a meaningful way that would have deterred their attack on Ukraine, the West has essentially adopted a Chamberlain-like policy of appeasement for two decades that has emboldened Vladimir Putin and increased the likelihood of further Russian aggression. However, the West’s reaction to Russian aggression over the past twenty years has been far more egregious than mere appeasement: Europe has, in fact, facilitated and enabled Russian aggression and tyranny in large part by two failed policies.
Weak Leadership: First of all, Europe’s young people, without a memory of the world prior to 1989, have tipped the electoral scales in favor of a generation of weak European leaders with no sense of history, who have failed to spend sufficient resources on their own defense. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), created in the aftermath of WWII, currently has 30 members (28 European members, plus the U. S. and Canada). Each NATO country has committed to spend at least 2% of its annual GDP on defense in support of the NATO mutual defense alliance. Disappointingly, only Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, France, United Kingdom and the United States currently spend at least 2% of their GDP on national defense. Notably absent from the list of countries that are fulfilling their NATO obligations are Germany (1.36%), Canada (1.30%), Italy (1.18%) and Spain (less than 1%). [based on figures released by NATO in 2021 for calendar year 2019 defense expenditures]
Weak Energy Policy: Europe’s second failure has been its adoption of fanciful energy policies resulting in an energy crisis and emerging economic crisis of their own making. Europe should be admired for its desire to improve the environment and reduce CO2 emissions; however, in its haste to decarbonize without an orderly and practical energy transition, Europe has jeopardized its own energy security, economic security and ultimately the national security of the European nations. Europe has spent hundreds of billions of Euros on intermittent renewable energy projects, while concurrently shutting down much of their conventional back-up power capabilities (coal and nuclear). Germany, the often-presumed leader of Europe, has at once destructed the world’s finest fleet of nuclear power plants while simultaneously bullying its neighbors (France, Belgium, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Lithuania, Ukraine and others) to do exactly the same. Europe has exacerbated its energy and security vulnerability by allowing its own oil and gas reserves to dwindle away, while abandoning new oil and gas exploration. Europe has become increasingly dependent on imported natural gas to generate power when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. However, Germany has been reticent to import natural gas from the United States, ostensibly because much of U. S. gas is developed using hydraulic fracturing (Germany’s apprehension about “frac gas” has been based largely on Russia’s self-interested campaign of mis-information about hydraulic fracturing). As a result, Germany and other European nations currently depend on Russia for approximately half of their natural gas supplies.
European policy makers incorrectly calculated that the economic benefits of nurturing a close energy relationship with Russia would lessen the likelihood of conflict with Russia1. Europe’s energy and power systems are fragile and vulnerable, thereby jeopardizing it national security. Meredith Angwin famously described the "fatal trifecta" that leads to an unreliable and failing power grid. The trifecta is “overreliance on renewable energy, overreliance on just-in-time natural gas deliveries and overreliance on imports from the neighboring states.” Mrs. Angwin’s “fatal trifecta” could also be used in a broader context to describe Europe's failed energy policies.
Ukraine and Europe: The best-case scenario, for Ukraine and Europe as a whole, would be for the Ukrainian armed forces and Ukrainian citizens to stave off the Russian Army until sanctions can force Russia to leave Ukraine (very unlikely). Thence, the sanctions would remain in place until Russia pays war reparations to rebuild Ukraine (also very unlikely). We do not even want to speculate about the worst-case Ukraine scenario. Nevertheless, even under the best-case scenario, the world’s energy markets have forever changed, probably for the worse. Prices for energy have blown through the roof, especially in Europe, and high energy prices are likely to persist long after the conclusion of the Ukrainian War. Higher prices for electricity, home heating and gasoline are predictably tragic for consumers. However, there are also many impactful domino effects that affect almost every other industry. Higher energy prices translate into higher fertilizer prices, higher food prices and higher prices for everything manufactured using energy (which is essentially everything). European manufacturing capabilities are going to be crushed under the weight of persistently high energy prices and all of Europe is going to become significantly poorer as their considerable wealth is drained away in payment for imported energy and imported consumer goods! Manufacturing will continue to flee from Europe to parts of the world where energy is less expensive (U. S., Canada and Southeast Asia).
Truman Doctrine: In the aftermath of WWII, the United States adopted the Truman Doctrine, a foreign policy that was designed to contain Soviet geopolitical expansion. President Truman explained to Congress that “….it must be the policy of the United States to support the free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” It was understood that the national security of the United States would be threatened by totalitarian regimes that coerced free peoples. The Truman Doctrine was intended to be largely implemented without military intervention. Accordingly, following WWII, the U. S. sought to contain Soviet expansion through economic support of anti-Soviet countries. Under the European Recovery Program, commonly called the Marshall Plan, the U. S. spent staggering amounts of money to rebuild Europe and Japan with the belief that the best defense against Soviet aggression was strong and financially independent free countries and allies.
Based on recent events, it should be apparent for all to see that aggressive totalitarian regimes around the world remain poised to subjugate their weaker neighbors (Ukraine, Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Tibet, to name a few). Just as in 1947, it remains in the national security interest of the United States to resist these totalitarian regimes by empowering friends and allies in Europe, Asia and Australia. Accordingly, it will be imperative for the U. S. to adopt a renewed Truman Doctrine to help rebuild Ukraine and rebuild the European industrial complex, so as to ensure that Europe remains a strong counter-balance to future Russian aggression.
However, in order for the U. S. to adopt a renewed Truman Doctrine, the U. S. and Europe will need to re-calibrate their impractical energy policies adopted over the past decade. Sound energy policy must value energy reliability, price stability and national security. Energy transition must be calculated and reasonably paced. If an energy transition is undertaken too fast or without reliance on basic common sense, it will result in disillusionment of the public and the backlash will culminate in failure. Renewable energy will undoubtedly play a prominent role in the energy future of both Europe and the United States; however, renewable energy alone will not be sufficient to provide energy security in our lifetime. Electric vehicles will also play a role in our energy future; however, it is simply nonsense to believe that we can or should electrify all vehicles by 2035.
In the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine and its impactful ripple effects, the world will undoubtedly rely on the U. S. and Canada to accelerate development of their crude oil and natural gas reserves (and coal) in order to keep millions of people around the world from freezing and/or starving. And for those of us who are contemporaneously concerned about energy security, energy poverty and de-carbonization, we had better get serious about accelerating the development of nuclear energy. A good first step would be for all nations to stop shutting down their existing safe, affordable, reliable, resilient Cathedrals of Clean Energy (otherwise known as nuclear power plants).
Historian John Wheeler-Bennett stated that since the 1740’s, “…relations between Russia and Germany…have been a series of alienations, distinguished for their bitterness and of rapprochements, remarkable for their warmth.” In August 1939, Hitler and Stalin signed the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which it seems was a ploy by Germany to hold Russia at bay while Germany waged war on Western Europe. In June 1941, after Germany has successfully subjugated most of Western Europe, Germany unilaterally terminated the Treaty of Non-Aggression and attacked Russia. Over the past decade, Germany and Russia have negotiated a de-facto informal “Energy Treaty” whereby Germany will purchase large volumes of natural gas from Russia. This time, Russia unilaterally terminated the so-called Energy Treaty when it invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022.